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CAEM Tuesday Morning Report
Developing Community Among Supporters of Competitive Energy Markets July 12, 2005 |
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THIS WEEK: Comments on the Litmus Test for Competitive Electricity Markets ... Kelliher New FERC Chairman 3. Update
5. On the Go!
6. Significant Developments on the Journey to Competitive Markets
7. Resources That Provoke Thought About the Journey Please forward this to anyone who is interested in competitive energy markets. 1. THIS WEEK'S INSIGHT: In the previous TMR, I proposed a "litmus test" to use to evaluate whether a given policy was consistent with the "pure" model of electric competition. I proposed the following 9 principles:
As expected, comments were high-spirited. Three observations: First, the exercise was perceived as useful. Second, some of the comments did not disagree with the principle but raised concerns about the implementation. Third, I was surprised that there were no comments that wanted to add additional principles. Three principles drew a significant amount of comment: principle 1's elimination of the franchise, principle 3's prohibition on affiliates, and principles 4 and 5's inclusion of externalities in the prices that consumers would see. We will cover one principle in each TMR in some depth. GENERAL READER FEEDBACK ON LITMUS TEST: Comment 1: The argument you make, to simply approach the issue on the economic and physical merits, perhaps tempered by some social concerns, is intellectually correct and, unfortunately, politically impossible. I wish we could debate these issues on the merits, but our political decision making process is probably too distorted and fractured, especially on Capitol Hill and at the White House, to permit it. The only way around that, and it is certainly not ideal, is to provide FERC and state regulators greater discretion to decide these questions. While, as you well know, the regulatory arena is hardly a rarified forum where issues are dealt with only on their own merits intellectually, it is at least a better, more refined, more focused forum for deciding the issues you pose than are Congress or state legislatures. ********** Comment 2: You embrace the exercise that would have us adopt policy by starting with the thought experiment: "If we were God starting from scratch, how would we organize the gas industry? Once we had the so-called Foundation Study (never made public by the way!), then we could start to make compromises to that model by judging how much the compromise did fundamental damage to the model. As Yogi said, 'You got to be careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there.' We first had to know where we wanted to go." Ken, if we didn't need market agents to discover through trial and error how best to organize business operations and industrial sectors in general - and if we could instead rely upon smart people with good intentions and reasonable academic credentials to figure such things out for us - then socialism would have worked swimmingly. You purport to support markets, but oppose their operation by rejecting their single most useful feature - that of a discovery process for how best to organize and deliver goods and services. ********** Comment 3: I agree that you can examine the science or physics of energy without making policy decisions. However, I disagree that you can study the economics without any such choices. Economics builds on a foundation of law which represents the collective societal choices about how we organize ourselves. In the U.S., we have established a set of property rights, and these require assumptions and choices about property ownership and the enforcement of rules. These ownership decisions affect the economic outcome. For example, with infrastructure, you have to determine the extent to which eminent domain can be applied to the right-of-way for the wires. I can imagine the manufacturers of small generating units (that do not require T&D) would prefer no right of eminent domain for wires owners. Wires owners, however, would prefer an expansion of these rights. The recent Supreme Court decision reminds us of the importance of these decisions. I am suggesting that when economists tell you that they "analyze[d] the gas industry purely within an economic and physics framework, i.e., do [did] a clean slate analysis," that, in fact, they made assumptions about the laws and property rights. These rights are debatable. Persons who prefer different outcomes would prefer a different set of assumptions as a starting point for these economists' work. 2. NEXT WEEK'S INSIGHT 3. UPDATE 4. PERSPECTIVE ON THE JOURNEY You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something - your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.
5. ON THE GO! CAEM in the West: Coming soon to Austin, Denver, Calgary, and Phoenix CAEM conducts highly entertaining and interactive in-house workshop/training/strategic meetings that discuss trends, achievements, setbacks, current issues, lessons learned, and what needs to be done to move competition forward, as well as summarizing recent CAEM studies including: Consumer Benefits of Competition, Default Provider Service, Retail Energy Deregulation (RED) Index, Resource Adequacy, and most recently Transmission and Distribution. CAEM's CEO, Ken Malloy, is planning trips to Austin (NARUC Summer Meeting), Denver (COGA Annual Meeting), Calgary, and Phoenix. If your company is located in those cities and you want to arrange an in-house workshop or seminar, please contact Gary Clouser.
6. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TRANSITION TO COMPETITIVE ENERGY MARKETS PROGRESS Commissioner Joseph Kelliher was named Chairman of FERC by President Bush. Read about it here. (Several weeks ago, here, we said that President Bush had nominated Rebecca Klein and Jon Wellinghof as FERC commissioners. I thought I read that it had been announced but it was only a rumor. I was sloppy and I apologize.) California generators claim TURN petition unconstitutional. Read about it here. New England Governors worried about costs of ICAP. Read about it here. SETBACKS
We welcome the appointment of Chairman Kelliher but we will miss Pat Wood. DC Customers slow to switch. Read about it here.
7. RESOURCES THAT PROVOKE THOUGHT ABOUT THE JOURNEY We often get bogged down in the nitty gritty of details about energy policy and competition. As the pithy saying goes, we don't see the forest for the trees. Here is a view from the forest. With not a little chauvinistic pride in my heritage, I read Tom Friedman's recent ode to the economic miracle that is Ireland. While not in any way related to energy, it is nonetheless a testimonial to the ability of market reliance to transform, in this case, a national economy. One paragraph struck me:
I was especially buoyed by the "hang in there, because there will be bumps in the road" statement. Take a look at the full piece here. (Note: CAEM accepts no compensation for inclusion in the Tuesday Morning Report.)
8. READER FEEDBACK EDITOR'S NOTE: Many of you passed the test that was in the last TMR. I indicated that Justice Powell said of pornography "I know it when I see it." We all know that it was Justice Potter Stewart, not Powell. I just wanted to see if you were reading and it appears many of you are. Thanks for setting me straight! READER FEEDBACK ON ENERGY BILL AND ENERGY POLICY Comment 1: It is impossible to support the Energy Bill and not necessarily because of anything having to do with energy. The bill is simply a pork laden set of welfare benefits, pollution excusing, and other goodies for big oil. I am utterly opposed to it because of that. I would love to debate the energy aspects of the bill, but it is difficult to find many. Comment 2: Why did you say, "President Bush is a Republican who, one would expect, would support market policies for energy?" Neither mainstream party readily goes against its constituency to support ideological positions. Some of the most consistently Republican states, i.e., the Southeast, are the least competitive as far as electricity sales go. The Alaska Republicans always support federal subsidization of a gas pipeline across the mainland. I'm a Democrat myself and I support competitive energy markets. The issue transcends political parties. As far as voting representation goes, the position the politician takes has more to do with who the constituents are and where the money is coming from than which party he/she belongs to. Comment 3: Reading George Bush's speech should finally persuade you that Republicans - at least Republican politicians and donors - do not favor reliance on "markets" so much as they favor promoting businesses - preferably ones that will donate large amounts like the oil industry does. The "energy plan" described by Bush is a pastiche of subsidy programs for politically important business groups, including for the oil industry which is currently benefiting from record prices that are not likely to go down anytime soon. Not only are subsidies particularly wasteful at a time of record oil company profits, but accelerating depletion of domestic supplies hardly seems like a rational long-term strategy, since it shifts to the future greater problems of world oil dependence. If Bush believed in using markets to restrain demand, he would propose a sizable tax on energy consumption (gasoline, BTU, or carbon) so as to restrain demand, allow markets to decide allocation issues, reduce our terrible balance of trade problem - and start to arrest the frightening budget deficits created by his administration (with help from the other mythical "fiscally responsible" Republicans). The prospect of his lecturing the G-8 countries on how other countries should promote conservation and efficiency borders on the laughable given U.S. energy consumption, subsidies and inefficiencies. On balance, the "energy plan" is mostly a compilation of subsidies designed to reward enough groups to get it passed, without really coming to grips with the fiscal and energy problems the country faces. It allows Bush to say he did something and while rewarding loyal businesses. It doesn't advance energy markets, only energy businesses. READER FEEDBACK ON DEMAND RESPONSE The reason that the DR folks seem so well organized is that they have working on this stuff since the late 1970's. While "demand response" is relatively new jargon, it is just "conservation and load management" or "DSM" by another name. As with the DSM activities of the 1980's, we can use a tariff that mimics efficient prices (RTP/TOU/interruptible), or we can design and administer programs (rebates and such) to compensate for bad regulatory pricing, or we can unbundle the markets and set up a market structure that requires people to take responsibility for their actions in the marketplace (TX model banning wires company provision of "competitive energy services"). We had those options decades ago, and we have them today. When they were proposed decades ago, they we met with great resistance because very few people admitted that regulatory pricing was horrid. Say what you wish about your friends in Calif., but it was the 1993 "Yellow Book" that preceded the 1994 "Blue Book" that told the story about how regulation was not working. READER FEEDBACK ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Comment 1: Global Climate Change (previously referred to as global warming; or, more previously, as global cooling) is going nowhere, which is exactly where it should be going. The science is shaky. The models cannot model the past. How can they be relied upon to model the future? The weatherpersons don't know within 1 degree F. what the temperature will be tomorrow, no less in 2100! Kyoto is step one of a process intended to bring the U.S. to its knees economically. Ronald Bailey of Reason wrote a great set of articles about the COP 10 meetings [The 10th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (link)]. The end point, in the minds of the biggest proponents, is stabilizing CO2 concentrations at ~500 ppm. The recommended approach to achieving this end point is referred to as "contraction and convergence" (everybody uses less and everybody uses the same amount). This would require a reduction of ~95% in U.S. CO2 emissions per capita. This would not be easy, as Senator McCain suggests, nor would it be cheap. The easiest way to avoid sliding down this "slippery slope" is to avoid stepping onto the slope in the first place. Comment 2: I think dealing with global warming is necessary (it is pretty clear now that this is a real externality with real potential harm) and it is best dealt with at the national/international level. The emphasis from our side needs to be that solutions should be market oriented (cap and trade or carbon taxes) not command and control oriented (everyone must have a specific portfolio mix or every source needs to reduce emissions by the same amount).
ARCHIVE: Access previous CAEM Tuesday Morning Reports here. The Center for the Advancement of Energy Markets (CAEM) is an independent,non-profit, public policy think tank that supports an effective transition from the monopoly model of energy regulation to an open-access, customer choice model. To subscribe, send a blank message to CAEMemaillist-on@mail-list.com |
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